Statistics to Help Improve Your Chances at an NCAA Perfect Bracket

billion dollar bracket 2014 march madness ncaa
If you’re planning to play the Quicken Loans – Yahoo NCAA college basketball Billion Dollar Bracket challenge (you should because it’s free, but sign-ups are limited), the odds are that you aren’t going to win. That being said, you can greatly improve your odds by knowing some basic information about how games have gone in past NCAA March Madness tournaments. Even if you know little about college basketball, this information will give you a much better chance when picking your brackets. This information will help improve your chances of winning the Billion Dollar Bracket Challenge, or picking one of the best 20 brackets to win $100,000 toward you home loan.

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2 Responses to Statistics to Help Improve Your Chances at an NCAA Perfect Bracket

  1. WCWIII says:

    When talking about trying to win a pool against millions of other entries, my suggestion is to throw a random number for every game based upon the following formula: Prob(lower/better seed wins) = 55% + 3% x (seed difference). This formula propagated through a tournament gives about the right number of upsets (and predicts a 0% chance for a 16 to beat a 1). I’ve estimated that this technique would have about a 1 in 10,000 chance in a 5M person pool of winning. It might not seem like great odds, but 1 in 10,000 in a pool that size are actually pretty great odds. Personally, I’ll use this technique in the billion dollar challenge – not that I think I have any chance of getting all the picks correct, but there are some very good prizes for being among the top finishers and maybe my 1 in 10,000 times comes this year!

    In your local office pool with say 100 entries or fewer, use the guidelines in this article. You might also consider the least likely of the No. 1 seeds in your pool as your winner. If one of the No. 1 seeds resides in your city, lots of people will pick them … take your chances with a less favorite team.

  2. Kevin says:

    I have no idea what this sentence means:

    “15 seed teams have only been able to win one time (4% of the time) against 15 seed teams, so it’s a pretty rare event”

    15 seeds playing against 15 seeds? I’ll assume you meant 15 seeds against 2 seeds.

    Only one time? 4%?

    I’ve got the count at 7 wins. There have been 116 2-15 seed matchups since 1985, putting it at 6%.

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